As we approach the end of 2021, it’s time to revisit my forecast for 2021 and see how I did. In 2020 I gave myself a B (3.25 out of 4) and you can read my 2020 predictions and self-rating here. You can read my self-assessment for 2021 for each prediction here. This year, I scored 3.77 (out of 4), a solid A-.
1. Again, just like last year, my first prediction is that we will continue to see many big trades (at high valuations) in the video game industry. I still expect the most likely big IPOs to be Discord and Epic. Last year we saw a lot of acquisitions of over $ 1 billion game companies and I think we will see that again this year, along with an increasing amount of funding going to game companies funded by. venture capital at an earlier stage.
2. Again, repeating one of my predictions from 2021, I expect the “designer economy” – the people and businesses that make money by creating things ranging from l crafts, games, videos and music, for example – are growing considerably. Many companies pay a portion of the revenue from these creations to the “creators” – the people who make the items or content. And some companies offer “creator funds” where they can give “grants” to creators to produce their “assets” and they distribute the income between the company (the platform) and the creators. Good examples of this are Roblox, which had a very successful IPO in early 2021, as well as Overwolf – a private company with substantial venture capital funding that focuses on video game modifications and games. ‘other software relating to games. Overwolf’s creative fund was originally provided by Intel
3. Disney + and Netflix
4. Cord cutting will continue and go to double digits this year. This trend is accelerating and traditional cable companies will have to depend on Internet service and other products for their future growth.
5. Some people have said that Apple will buy a film and television studio to add substantial programming to the Apple TV offering. I can’t imagine Apple would like to run a Hollywood studio or tolerate their expensive operations. Rather, I would expect Apple to buy film and TV libraries and continue to make production deals with various producers and their companies.
6. Smart TV (smart TV and other means of connecting your TV to the Internet) will continue to grow dramatically as more viewers start using the various “extras” on CTV and not just watching SVOD services. or the standard “broadcast” signals. Free games on CTV, for example, are a growing field.
7. We will see strong increases in two types of digital advertising in the United States: connected TV advertising (which is already becoming very profitable) as well as mobile advertising which is increasing as the demand for mobile advertising increases. This will include a growing presence of advertising inside video and mobile as a new way to reach consumers and generate revenue for game makers.
8. NFTs are not a fad, nor is blockchain or cryptocurrency. These elements of the “new economy” are real and generate billions of dollars in transactions around the world. People love to collect and trade items, probably since the days of the earliest human precursors. NFTs will be used to digitally identify and trade “objects” or virtual goods – which could be elements of a game – or could be a partial property on a digital object (or a real world object) such as a work of art. ‘art. NFTs bring collection and commerce to the digital space and games are emerging as one of the first major applications of NFTs in the digital world.
9. Audio advertising is experiencing a revival due to the growth of podcasts and live broadcasting. In an “ad product” that dates back to the early days of radio, most audio ads found on digital services are live ads served by the podcaster and / or streamer (live streaming content like esports gaming) . For example, a streamer might say “When I’m done with this podcast, I go home with a Bud Lite.” A good example of this growing approach is from StreamElements where they offer a digital platform for advertisers and live streamers to match. Live audio ads are another way to cut through the clutter and reach consumers using digital platforms.
10. Web 3.o – It looks like this is the year that Web 3.0 will be defined. It seems that the “digerati” are preparing to regard “The Metaverse” as Web 3.0. Many analysts I respect see the metaverse more as a ‘style’ of digital interaction rather than a central location (like Disney World). There are actually plenty of ‘metaverse-y’ digital events already out there – concerts in Fortnite by Epic, a kid’s’ teleportation ‘in a game of Toya (Miraculous LadyBug) from Roblox that took these kids to an’ event. Children’s Netflix elsewhere in Roblox. All virtual worlds, including older ones like Second Life, which is very profitable, are examples of elements of what the Metaverse is and can be. Web 3.0 will become known for decentralization, further AI-driven decision making, interoperability between digital items and services, and an expanded version of community and identity.