A windy and bright Sunday; cold start to the week

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My wife and I spent several days on the north shore of Lake Superior this week. We were joined by my grandson and his parents.

There was little fall color along the shoreline, but brilliant fall color was spotted in the Sawtooth Mountains inland from Tofte and Lutsen.

Here’s an update on Cook County’s fall colors:

When you look fall color cards keep in mind that all deciduous trees are included. Maples can peak when the overall shift to fall color is less than 50% in a given area.

Strong winds on Sunday

There is a big pressure difference between an anticyclone over the Rocky Mountains and a low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes, so we will have strong northwest winds today. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be common across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin Sunday afternoon and early Sunday evening.

Chances of rain?

There is a risk of scattered showers and an isolated storm in north-central and northeastern Minnesota as well as parts of western Wisconsin Sunday and Sunday evening.

We’ve updated weather information for Minnesota and western Wisconsin on Minnesota Public Radio News networkand on the MPR News live weather blog.

Monday and Tuesday appear to be rainless across most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Temperature trends

Sunday highs will be in the 60s across much of Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Parts of northeast Minnesota will see highs in the upper 50s. Highs in the Twin Cities metro area should be in the upper 60s, but a deviation of 70s is possible in the metro. The average high temperature for our twin cities is 69 degrees this time of year.

Monday highs will be in the 60s in most areas, but there will be around 50 in north-central and northeastern Minnesota:

Monday forecast highs

National Weather Service

Low temperatures late Monday evening and early Tuesday will be in the 30s in northern and central Minnesota as well as parts of Wisconsin:

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Lows expected Tuesday morning

National Weather Service

Most of Minnesota and western Wisconsin will see Wednesday morning lows in the 30s.

Back to high temperatures, highs for the Twin Cities metro area are expected to be around 60 on Tuesday, followed by the mid-60s on Thursday and around 70 on Friday.

Ian is expected to become a major hurricane

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Ian’s Saturday Night/Sunday Morning Satellite Loop

NOAA

Tropical Storm Ian is expected to become a hurricane Sunday evening or early Monday, and Ian could become a major hurricane this week. A hurricane warning has been issued for western parts of Cuba. Ian’s planned trajectory takes him to the west coast and the Florida Panhandle on Wednesday and Thursday.

Here is the latest update on Ian from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Warning Ian Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Sunday September 25, 2022 … FORECAST IAN BEGINS TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY LATER TODAY … … HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR WESTERN CUBA WHERE SIGNIFICANT WIND AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED IMPACTS…SUMMARY 1100 AM EDT…1500 UTC…INFORMATION ————— —————————— —————– LOCATION…15.2N 79.8W APPROXIMATELY 300 MI…480 KM SSE FROM GRAND CAYMAN APPROXIMATELY 570 MI…920 KM SE OF WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H CURRENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS ——————– CHANGES WITH THIS NOTICE: The Government of Cuba upgraded the hurricane watch to a hurricane warning for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa, and upgraded the tropical storm watch as a tropical storm warning for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and M atanzas. The Cayman Islands government has halted tropical storm watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A hurricane warning is in effect for… * Grand Cayman * Cuba’s provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa A tropical storm warning is in effect for… * Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque and Matanzas A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning zone. A warning is usually issued 36 hours before the first expected occurrence of tropical storm-force winds, conditions that make outdoor preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property must be completed in haste. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning zone within 36 hours. Interests in central Cuba, the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula are expected to monitor Ian’s progress. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your National Weather Service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ———————- As of 11:00 a.m. EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ian was located near latitude 15, 2 north and longitude 79.8 west. Ian is moving west-northwest at nearly 14 mph (22 km/h). A northwesterly turn at a similar forward speed is expected later in the day, followed by a north-northwesterly move on Monday and a northward move Tuesday with forward speed slightly slower. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to pass well southwest of Jamaica today and pass near or west of the Cayman Islands early Monday. Ian will then move near or over western Cuba Monday evening and early Tuesday and emerge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid reinforcement should begin later today or tonight. Ian is expected to become a hurricane tonight or early Monday and reach major hurricane strength Monday evening or early Tuesday before reaching western Cuba. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 95 km from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ———————- Key messages for Ian can be found in the tropical cyclone discussion under the AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and the OMM WTNT44 KNHC header and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman early Monday, with tropical storm conditions expected later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning zone in Cuba by early Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions expected by late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area in Cuba Monday evening and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Ian is expected to produce the following precipitation: Jamaica and Cayman Islands: 3 to 6 inches, with local highs up to 8 inches. West Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with local highs up to 16 inches. Florida Keys in the south and central Florida peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with local highs up to 6 inches Monday through Wednesday morning. Heavy rain could affect North Florida, the Florida panhandle and the southeastern United States Thursday, Friday and Saturday. These rains can produce flash floods and mudslides in areas of higher ground, especially over Jamaica and Cuba. Flash and urban flooding are possible in the Florida Keys and the Florida Peninsula through the middle of the week. Additional flooding and flooding in streams and rivers in the North Florida region and parts of the southeastern United States later this week cannot be ruled out, particularly in central Florida, given the already saturated conditions. STORM SURGE: Storm surge could cause water levels to rise up to 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels along the west coast of Cuba in areas with onshore winds in the area of hurricane warning Monday evening and early Tuesday. The storm surge could raise water levels up to 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast in onshore wind areas in the Cayman Islands from Sunday evening through Monday. SURF: The swells generated by Ian affect Jamaica and will spread to the Cayman Islands later today. The swell will then spread northwest to the southwest coast of Cuba and the coasts of Honduras, Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico on Monday and Monday evening. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip conditions. Please consult your local meteorological office for products.

Here is Ian’s predicted path, including the cone of uncertainty for Ian’s center path:

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Ian’s forecast trajectory

NWS National Hurricane Center

The National Hurricane Center will be posting several updates on Ian today and over the coming week.

Programming note

You can hear my live weather updates on MPR News at 7:35am, 9:35am and 4:39pm Saturday and Sunday.

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